I recently participated in a gathering of organizations involved in narrative change. (Like nearly all meetings these days, it was held via Zoom. I’ll admit that the novelty of that technology – Chat! Share screens! – is wearing thin.)
The organizers presented us with two future scenarios for the COVID-19 crisis. In Scenario A, they imagined, “social distancing and a new contact tracing and testing program worked exceptionally well and [by spring 2021] a larger-than-expected proportion of people have already had the virus and built immunity, thus preventing a second wave. Social distancing and quarantine were phased out by end of summer/early fall 2020, and we saw a steady, methodical return to normal social behavior, with only a few minor flare ups.”
In the second, “states opened up too quickly in the summer of 2020, causing a second, aggressive surge of the virus in the winter. More senseless deaths occurred and lockdown was extended through end of the year. Now, in early 2021, there is a very slow return to normal social behavior as people are still quite fearful of group interaction and public spaces. Many businesses were unable to recover and the country is facing record levels of unemployment, hovering at 25 percent.”
